Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro's government has made headlines recently by releasing 99 political prisoners ahead of the 2024 elections, touting a commitment to human rights amid growing international scrutiny. This move is seen as an attempt to mitigate criticism and improve its image ahead of the upcoming electoral process. Despite these gestures, significant doubts remain about the country’s political stability and the government’s overall control.

Currently, prediction markets place the chance of Maduro leaving office by 2025 at a mere 2.6%. This suggests that the crowd believes it is almost certain he will remain in power beyond this date. With a high 97.4% likelihood that he does not step down, it reflects a strong sentiment that Maduro's regime is poised to endure amidst ongoing political challenges and unrest.

Given the current probability, it is likely that Maduro will continue to govern Venezuela up until at least December 2026. The landscape suggests that economic conditions and political dissent may continue to vacillate, but without significant upheaval or opposition unity, Maduro's administration appears to remain entrenched for the foreseeable future. Under this scenario, expect more releases of political prisoners as a strategic maneuver to buoy international support while maintaining a firm grip on power domestically.

A shift in the probability landscape could occur if there were significant developments such as a powerful opposition coalition forming, international sanctions gaining traction, or major protests igniting broader unrest. Additionally, international diplomatic negotiations or a sudden escalation in regional tensions might spur movements towards regime change. Observers should keep an eye on both domestic strife and international responses to Venezuela's political maneuvers.

Maduro remaining in power beyond 2025 is almost certain in the current climate.