In recent developments, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is set to meet with former President Donald Trump, following intensified discussions among US, Russian, and Ukrainian officials regarding the ongoing conflict. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown little sign of compromising. Meanwhile, regional tensions also persist in Southeast Asia, with Thailand and Cambodia recently agreeing to an immediate ceasefire amid their own territorial disputes.

The prediction market assigns a mere 1.8% probability to a potential ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine occurring in 2025. This indicates that the crowd overwhelmingly believes it is almost certain this outcome will not materialize, with a 98.2% chance of continued conflict or heightened tensions. The trading volume of over $66 million reflects strong market engagement but also a clear consensus on the unlikelihood of peace in the near future.

Given the 1.8% probability, the most likely scenario over the coming week is the continuation of hostilities in Ukraine. Despite diplomatic efforts, the lack of substantial goodwill from Putin suggests that current military operations will persist without any significant peace initiatives. Readers should expect ongoing skirmishes and a stalled political process, with little change on the ground.

A dramatic shift in the situation, such as unexpected major concessions from Russia or a breakthrough in peace talks facilitated by external actors could increase the chances of a ceasefire. Additionally, widespread international pressure or significant changes in public sentiment within Ukraine may also influence negotiations. Watching for any official ceasefire proposals or changes in military strategy will be crucial.

A ceasefire in Ukraine in the near future is highly unlikely.